Occupancy rates for student housing are projected to end the 2026-2027 school year lower than in 2025, as additional unit supply and a deceleration in enrollment growth strain many key university markets. In September, the Yardi 200 campus-housing portfolio posted a tentative 94.5% occupancy, equal to September 2025 and to the average recorded since 2019. This early figure is likely to be revised downward once more information is gathered. A separate calculation suggests occupancy could be 92.1%, which is 240 basis points beneath the September 2025 level.
New Supply Weighs on Major University Markets
The anticipated drop mirrors a tough leasing period characterized by a surge in new units and indications that enrollment growth is easing. In 2026, over 31,000 purpose-built off-campus beds were added, representing a 20% rise over the prior year. While fifty percent of the fresh projects achieved full occupancy, the September average for 2026 deliveries fell to 84.1%, versus 95.3% for the 2025 cohort at the same stage.
Occupancy figures differed markedly among campus markets. In September, analysts estimated that 36 of the Yardi 200 locations were at full capacity, among them major markets like Oklahoma, Washington, Virginia Commonwealth and Virginia Tech. In contrast, 38 markets posted occupancy estimates under 90%, with the lowest results clustered at institutions facing enrollment drops or large recent deliveries.
Market Performance and Rent Trends
A number of campuses still showed notable rebounds versus earlier periods. UNC Charlotte logged an occupancy of 98.3%, up from 91.8% in 2025 and 85.3% in 2024. Boise State climbed to 98.2% after posting 92.6% and 86.8% in the two prior years. East Carolina kept its upward trend, achieving 93% after 87.9% the previous year and 82.3% in 2024.
Read Also: BDT & MSD Partners to Acquire Sunrise Senior Living
The lower-performing campuses included North Carolina State, which posted an 81.3% occupancy after adding 2,195 beds in 2026. UC Berkeley posted 89.7% occupancy after introducing 1,430 new beds. Purdue, having incorporated 1,588 beds since 2024, saw its occupancy fall to 88.2% from 94% the year before. A further 3,673 beds are currently being built in that market, which may prolong leasing strain.
Rental trends reflected a comparable split. Oklahoma State posted a leasing-season rent increase of 11.4%, pushing average rent to $671 per unit. Louisville saw rents rise 9% to $756, and Mississippi State logged a 6.3% rise to $720. In contrast, Purdue experienced an 8.2% rent drop for the season, while Arizona State and North Carolina State reported declines of 6% and 3.3% respectively.
Outlook for 2027
Markets saturated with new supply are likely to encounter further hurdles as 2027 approaches. The ten campuses that received the largest number of 2026 deliveries contributed over 17,000 beds in total, and the weighted-average occupancy fell 300 basis points year-over-year to 92.8%. Of the eight institutions that disclosed autumn enrollment figures, headcounts slipped by an average of 0.5%, versus a 1.8% rise in 2025. An additional 18,500 beds are under construction in these areas, suggesting that occupancy and rent pressures may continue into the next year.
Leave a Reply